A seventeen-layer probability-weighted framework on silver and gold pricing through 2026, alongside a 10-year thesis on Guanghai Bay waterfront real estate. Built and maintained by Jim Chen.
This site collects two threads of research that share a common method: build a probability-weighted framework, source every claim, and stress-test the thesis rather than confirm it.
The silver and gold framework began as a personal research project asking how an unleveraged physical silver holder should think about position sizing under simultaneous oil shocks, rate-cut reversals, central bank gold rotation, and chokepoint crises. What started as a V1 note became a seventeen-layer model spanning supply/deficit fundamentals, inflation dynamics, petrodollar erosion, geopolitical chokepoints, banking fragility, debt refinancing cliffs, eurodollar dollar-shortage mechanics, fiscal dominance, AI/industrial-metals transmission, strategic-designation policy, and — new in V11.2 — the wealth-effect reversal channel that links the silver position to the K-shaped economy through forced correlation risk. V11.3, published May 22, 2026, marks the first version with a committed partial-locking schedule decoupling the position from the property-purchase calendar.
The Guanghai Bay thesis applies the same probability-weighted approach to a different question: what happens when a low-cost-basis waterfront position sits inside one of just a handful of locations explicitly named in China's 2019 Greater Bay Area development plan, as three cross-sea bridges, ¥330B in industrial capital, and a deep-water port converge in real time?
Both are updated continuously as new data arrives — PPI/CPI prints, FOMC decisions, signed capital announcements, infrastructure milestones, government work reports, and ad-hoc tariff/sanctions actions.