Probability-weighted research on silver and gold pricing through 2026, plus a 10-year investment thesis on Guanghai Bay waterfront property. Built and maintained by Jim Chen.
This site collects two threads of research that share a common method: build a probability-weighted framework, source every claim, and stress-test the thesis rather than confirm it.
The silver and gold framework began as a personal research project asking how an unleveraged physical silver holder should think about position sizing under simultaneous oil shocks, rate-cut reversals, central bank gold rotation, and chokepoint crises. What started as a V1 note became a 13-layer model spanning supply/deficit fundamentals, inflation dynamics, petrodollar erosion, geopolitical chokepoints, banking fragility, debt refinancing cliffs, and eurodollar dollar-shortage mechanics.
The Guanghai Bay thesis applies the same probability-weighted approach to a different question: what happens when a low-cost-basis waterfront position sits inside one of just a handful of locations explicitly named in China's 2019 Greater Bay Area development plan, as three cross-sea bridges, ¥330B in industrial capital, and a deep-water port converge in real time?
Both are updated continuously as new data arrives — PPI/CPI prints, FOMC decisions, signed capital announcements, infrastructure milestones, and government work reports.