What now

The Warsh dot plot on June 17 is the next binary. The market is pricing 25bp; the framework gives 62% to a 25bp cut, 22% to a hold, 16% to a 50bp surprise. The path of real rates matters more than the headline number.

I'm increasingly convinced that Layer 13's dominance is durable through Q3. Macro flows are outrunning physical supply/demand on every print. The structural layers are not wrong; they're just slower than the wave they're sitting on.

Open question: at what tilt level does Layer 17 (wealth-effect reversal) become a fast variable rather than a slow one? My intuition is "during the second AI capex disappointment, not the first." I have no model for this yet. Working on it.

• Lyn Alden — Broken Money (re-read, chapters 7-9)Book
• BIS Annual Economic Report 2025 — fiscal-monetary sectionPaper
• Doomberg — past three weeks of Substack notes on the warLetter
• Hoffman + Russolillo — Silver: The People's MetalBook
• Stratechery — Ben Thompson on AI capex tail riskEssay

I'm only sharing position categories here — the full dated buy/sell ledger lives on the framework page.

• Physical silver — 105oz, $68/oz avg cost basisHold
• Two waterfront units, Guanghai Bay, TaishanHold · 10y
• Cash buffer (USD + RMB)Defensive
• No leveraged silver or gold derivativesRule

• FOMC · June 17 dot plot20 days
• CPI · June 13 release16 days
• Hormuz · daily transit volumesOngoing
• COMEX silver registered inventoryWeekly
• Guanghai Bay port Phase II milestoneQ4 2026

v11.4 of this site, which you're on right now. Added an editable home, a 17-layer spectrum, regime tilt, thesis graph, version time-machine, audio paper mode, RSS-style updates feed, PDF binder export, theme controls, a catalyst calendar, a correlation heatmap, a predictions log, and a hidden compass behind the konami code.

Next, probably: a scrollytelling walkthrough of all seventeen layers, and the workspace ideas in Round 3 of the lab.